The map and the territory: Risk, human nature, and the future of forecasting — A book event featuring Alan Greenspan

The map and the territory: Risk, human nature, and the future of forecasting — A book event featuring Alan Greenspan

For many years, economists have made authoritative and mathematically complex predictions about where the US economy is headed. Yet as Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve and head of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Gerald Ford, observes in his new book, “The Map and the Territory,” which he will discuss on Jan. 14, 2014, at 5:30 pm ET, no one predicted the timing of the 2008 financial crisis, or its severity.


What is wrong with economic forecasting that it could not foresee a cataclysm of the magnitude of the 2008 financial crisis, even days before it happened? Greenspan’s book may portend a complete revision in the way economists forecast the future. At this AEI event, he will argue that entirely new data capturing “animal spirits” (the elements of human behavior) will be necessary if the economics profession is to improve its forecasting accuracy.

Tuesday, January 14, 2014 | 5:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.
AEI, Twelfth Floor
1150 Seventeenth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036

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Monday, October 27, 2014 | 10:00 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.
State income taxes and the Supreme Court: Maryland Comptroller v. Wynne

Please join AEI for a panel discussion exploring these and other questions about this crucial case.

Event Registration is Closed
Tuesday, October 28, 2014 | 9:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.
For richer, for poorer: How family structures economic success in America

Join Lerman, Wilcox, and a group of distinguished scholars and commentators for the release of Lerman and Wilcox’s report, which examines the relationships among and policy implications of marriage, family structure, and economic success in America.

Event Registration is Closed
Tuesday, October 28, 2014 | 5:30 p.m. – 7:00 p.m.
The 7 deadly virtues: 18 conservative writers on why the virtuous life is funny as hell

Please join AEI for a book forum moderated by Last and featuring five of these leading conservative voices. By the time the forum is over, attendees may be on their way to discovering an entirely different — and better — moral universe.

Thursday, October 30, 2014 | 2:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.
A nuclear deal with Iran? Weighing the possibilities

Join us, as experts discuss their predictions for whether the United States will strike a nuclear deal with Iran ahead of the November 24 deadline, and the repercussions of the possible outcomes.

Thursday, October 30, 2014 | 5:00 p.m. – 6:15 p.m.
The forgotten depression — 1921: The crash that cured itself

Please join Author James Grant and AEI senior economists for a discussion about Grant's book, "The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself" (Simon & Schuster, 2014).

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